Originally, I was aiming to identify what might be regarded as the “locked-in” return, if there were such a thing. However, I have now moved on, to explore an area which might be more interesting to trustees and sponsors, especially given the impact of FRS17 (or IAS19) and scheme-specific funding.

What they should like is a scientific estimate of what the ultimate MVR might be after,  say, 15  years. Equivalently, having a realistic view of the potential return would be good. This is now considered here.

There are two static charts showing MVRs and DVRs for equities over periods of either 10 years or 15 years, by start year in period (end December). That the mean MVRs are the same for both periods puzzled me but it’s just the way it is. The grey numbers in the statistics summary relate to the difference (DVR minus MVR). The correlations appear to be significant.

There is also an interactive chart showing sub-periods between 10 years and 15 years (lower slider). The upper slider defines the start year (end December). Note that the start year plus period cannot exceed 2022.